Monday, 14 March 2011

Ask yourself five times "Why?"

A good trick to reach you inner motivation, your drive why you do or don't do an action, is asking Why. five times in a row.
Since it is your own exercise, you have just three rules:
  1. be sincere and honest to yourself. 
  2. Make it personal. It's about YOU, YOUR thoughts and feelings. Not about the others.
  3. If you answer "I don't know", be even more sincere and honest to yourself. You deserve it. 
You'll be surprised what the result is.

So I write this post.
Why (do I write this)?
Because I found out this technique is interesting and confronting. I want to share this with other people.
Why (do I want to share this)?
Because I think it confronts with my inner motivation. Personally, I feel the urge to share this because it's important people know why they do things.
Why (do i feel this urge)?
I guess I am frustrated sometimes because people do stupid things without thoroughky thinking over.
Why (am I frustrated about this)?
I'm not only frustrated, I'm fed up with the stupidity of some people and their motivations (if they have any ) They ruin it for a lot of other people. I want to change things.
Why (do I want to change things)?
Because I believe things can change.

There it is. I am still the idealist from high school.
Only I'm more frustrated now than I was in that time.

To keep it funny, think this:

Di Caprio knew it already :)

afternote: this technique is known in project management and problem solving, consult  wikipedia or  search google on "five times why" or "5 whys". Using it for self reflection is just one way to exploit it.

Tuesday, 1 March 2011

Who is in power?

Libia is chaotic.

It is very unclear how this will end. But it's crucial, even for us poor powerless civilians. A total civil war will have its effects on global economy. Because of the oil.

Why was Khadaffi not the West's best friend? Because he was totalitarian, and did not want to listen to the West. He made his own deals. He supported terrorist groups from all over the world, gave them their nice place under the sun, in the immeasurable Libyan desert, to 'spread and reproduce' The US and Europe did not like this, for years. They supported anti-Khadaffi forces, and Khadaffi supported any group that was active in terrorism against Western countries.

This is old like the sand dust in the desert. It gave support to IRA, RAF, PLO, Umkhonto We Sizwe (the armed wing of the ANC of South Africa), and some others. These went from extreme right to extreme left, it didn't matter as long as it destabilised the Western world.
Therefore he was not particularly loved by the West. But after the Lockerby attack, there was an immense international pressure to hand over the terrorists, so he did. A lot of bans and boycotts were lifted, as a sign of goodwill, and almost everybody started to tolerate the Libyan policy. They had oil, reason enough.

How much oil are we talking?

Libya is the largest African producer, and ninth on the world list. Their oils is especially attractive, because it's easy to win, and close to the European markets. The reserve, at current rate of production, is estimated to last for another 50 years, But, since the boycotts, an estimate of 35% of the oil reserves are unexplored. So there is still a 'gold mine' under the desert of Libya.

That's a lot of oil. Enough to start a war over. At hte given situation of who is in control, and what might change, the West, but at this time, also China and a few other emerging economies, are happy with the crisis in Libya, as longs it does not take months. They would be very happy if a more liberal regime would come to the power.

So, what is all this saying about the close future?

My guess: If the revolution staggers, we might see international intervention. Even a secret one, with special ops, the French Foreign legion (who are particularly home in African deserts), to overthrow the regime. But it will get bloody. Khadaffi has well trained troops, and abundance of weapons, which were provided to him (I suppose mainly in exchange for the oil)

Other countries won't be that happy with the intervention of the West in Libya: It destabilizes the agreements that the Arabic countries made about oil prices, so they might put pressure on the West not to intervene. In the worst case, The actively support Khadaffi and send troops.
In those cases, oil prices will rise.

So, expect expensive oil. Expect a critical destabilisation of North Africa and the Middel East. 

Be happy if you live in Australia or New Zea-land. Its fucking far from your beds.