Tuesday, 1 March 2011

Who is in power?

Libia is chaotic.

It is very unclear how this will end. But it's crucial, even for us poor powerless civilians. A total civil war will have its effects on global economy. Because of the oil.

Why was Khadaffi not the West's best friend? Because he was totalitarian, and did not want to listen to the West. He made his own deals. He supported terrorist groups from all over the world, gave them their nice place under the sun, in the immeasurable Libyan desert, to 'spread and reproduce' The US and Europe did not like this, for years. They supported anti-Khadaffi forces, and Khadaffi supported any group that was active in terrorism against Western countries.

This is old like the sand dust in the desert. It gave support to IRA, RAF, PLO, Umkhonto We Sizwe (the armed wing of the ANC of South Africa), and some others. These went from extreme right to extreme left, it didn't matter as long as it destabilised the Western world.
Therefore he was not particularly loved by the West. But after the Lockerby attack, there was an immense international pressure to hand over the terrorists, so he did. A lot of bans and boycotts were lifted, as a sign of goodwill, and almost everybody started to tolerate the Libyan policy. They had oil, reason enough.

How much oil are we talking?

Libya is the largest African producer, and ninth on the world list. Their oils is especially attractive, because it's easy to win, and close to the European markets. The reserve, at current rate of production, is estimated to last for another 50 years, But, since the boycotts, an estimate of 35% of the oil reserves are unexplored. So there is still a 'gold mine' under the desert of Libya.

That's a lot of oil. Enough to start a war over. At hte given situation of who is in control, and what might change, the West, but at this time, also China and a few other emerging economies, are happy with the crisis in Libya, as longs it does not take months. They would be very happy if a more liberal regime would come to the power.

So, what is all this saying about the close future?

My guess: If the revolution staggers, we might see international intervention. Even a secret one, with special ops, the French Foreign legion (who are particularly home in African deserts), to overthrow the regime. But it will get bloody. Khadaffi has well trained troops, and abundance of weapons, which were provided to him (I suppose mainly in exchange for the oil)

Other countries won't be that happy with the intervention of the West in Libya: It destabilizes the agreements that the Arabic countries made about oil prices, so they might put pressure on the West not to intervene. In the worst case, The actively support Khadaffi and send troops.
In those cases, oil prices will rise.

So, expect expensive oil. Expect a critical destabilisation of North Africa and the Middel East. 

Be happy if you live in Australia or New Zea-land. Its fucking far from your beds.


  1. I think you're right. Blowback and retaliation from the West meddling in Africa's affairs will cause problems.

    Which is why, I think, it needs to come from the Middle East itself. It doesn't matter if we're in the fight, as long as we're not leading it.

  2. I agree the West needs to stay out and let it ride out.

  3. Ghadaffi looks funny in that pic but they missed his goatee!

  4. another one (dictator) bites the dust!

  5. I don't live in Australia but i'm still happy

  6. Yep they have to sort their own issues out...all the west should do is support the humanitarian effort

  7. I'm in agreement with the point that the west should stay out of it. There are enough problems over here that require our resources and tax money. why should it be spent elsewhere before taking care of our own? Oh? unless you want to mislead everyone to get an edge in on some resources there it wouldn't be the first time...............

  8. Just showing my support by stopping by. That's pretty crazy though!

  9. I wonder how things will turn out :/

  10. I have no idea what wil happen

  11. A lot of dirty Italian money in Libyan natural gas.

  12. good question, nice post

    + follower:)